CHART: The big EV battery bulge is flattening

Bulkier and bulkier batteries have been a feature of the global EV market for at least the last five years.

Under pressure from automakers trying to overcome the number one obstacle (still) of car buyers thinking of going electric – range anxiety – battery manufacturers have made rapid strides in packing more punch per kilogram and per liter.

Novel chemistries, fine-tuning tried and tested cathodes and innovation at pack level have all contributed to upping the kWh at the disposal of EV drivers. Or, all else being equal, just increasing the overall size. This trend—steady growth in the battery capacity of the average EV—now seems to have mostly leveled off.

The battery bulge across EV types, which kicked off in earnest in 2022 and accelerated into 2023, was in large part driven by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and, more specifically, extended-range EVs (EREVs), in which the combustion engine acts as a charger for the battery only.  

Li Auto leads 

Li Auto, until last year an EREV-only manufacturer, popularized the concept and in 2023 increased sales and total battery capacity deployed by over 180% year on year.

Naturally, the Beijing-based automaker’s annual growth moderated, but in 2024, the company still managed a near 40% expansion on both counts. Founded in 2015 by Li Xiang, who made his money from the popular Chinese website Autohome, the company became the world’s eighth largest EV group on a GWh deployed basis last year.  

The fact that the company can more than hold its own among BEV makers is thanks to the company’s EREVs which sport a sales weighted average battery capacity of 43.4 kWh with the flagship Li Auto L9 capable of going 817 miles (1,315 km) on a single charge and a full tank.

One in five

Across the board, EREVs – which enjoy a growing number of boosters including world no 1 BYD –  came in at an average of 39.4 kWh last year, larger than most compact vehicles. Strip out EREVs from the plug-in category and the average battery size of a PHEV falls to less than half at 19.4 kWh.

EREVs continue to encroach on traditional plug-in territory. From less than 10% of overall sales in 2022, now one out of every five PHEVs leaving showrooms is propelled by electric motors only. Last year EREVs contributed 36% of the 151.4 GWh that hit global roads in PHEVs for the first time.

Although much less extreme than the changes in PHEV packs which on average came equipped with 38% larger batteries in 2024 than in 2022, full electric passenger vehicle and minimally electrified conventional hybrids have also been bulked up.

The battery capacity of BEVs sold in 2024 was 9% bigger than in 2022 while HEV packs grew 10% in size over the same period.  While PHEV capacities continued to grow by double digits year on year in 2024, BEV managed only 2% expansion and HEV batteries have now settled at the 1.3 kWh mark.

In the mix

In many EV markets incentives and subsidies for BEVs are more generous than those for PHEVs or are absent when criteria for minimum all-electric driving ranges are not met.

As the graph of average battery capacity for all EV types shows there is usually a big drop off in January from the December before as EV buyers rush to make purchases before the expiry or reduction of subsidies at year’s end before returning to usual buying habits. During the last few years for many that meant choosing a hybrid over a full electric vehicle.

In the first quarter of 2025 this pattern changed. BEV sales are up by 36% year on year to 2.8 million units compared to a 27% rise for PHEVs to 1.5 million and 17% for HEVs to 1.8 million. That boosted overall battery capacity deployment by 33% to 213.2 GWh compared to Q1 2024.  

For raw material suppliers to the EV industry the support provided by expanding PHEV batteries and therefore contained metal softened the blow of increasing numbers of car buyers opting for hybrids over BEVs in recent years.  

If the trend observed in Q1 2025 holds, stable average battery sizes per EV type from here on would matter much less for raw material demand. The move back to BEVs would.