CHART: What unit sales can’t tell you about the global EV market

Adamas Intelligence analyzes the battery specifications and battery chemistries of every unique passenger EV model-version produced and sold globally each month with historical data back to January 2004 (~3,300 model-versions). 

Covering more than 250 automakers in over 120 countries we assess the competitive landscapes of cell suppliers and cell chemistries, and quantify battery capacity and battery materials deployment from where the rubber meets the road.

Reported battery capacity and materials deployment constitute installed watt-hours and tonnes of materials and do not take into account losses during conversion, refining and manufacturing, meaning upstream demand for raw materials in many instances are significantly higher than tonnages shown here.  

Extracting Adamas Intelligence’s granular data for November last year to compare different segments brings into sharp focus the complexities of the industry and lays bare the trends shaping the global EV market. 

Global sales of large passenger vehicles – cars, MPVs and SUVs in the F-Segment and pickups in the E-Segment – are on a roll. 

Registrations in the Large EV segment, exemplified by the Li Auto Mega MPV (pictured) in China and the Ford F-150 Lightning in the US, were up 67% year on year in November, hitting a new monthly record just shy of 57,000.  

However, sales of these large people carriers, stretch sedans, and sports gear and cargo haulers still trail far behind the small and compact EV segments.

Small EVs (A-Segment) which includes perennial bestsellers such as the Hongguang MINI, a compact urban runabout manufactured by the SAIC–GM-Wuling joint venture in China, and Compact (B-Segment) which comprises many automakers’ bread and butter budget models like the BYD Seagull and Toyota Yaris, together racked up sales of over 350,000 during the month. 

For analysts and suppliers to the global EV industry these sales figures provide limited insight. While Large EVs made up 16% of the sales in the three segments analyzed, when considering combined battery capacity deployed the proportion rises to 35%.  

The significantly larger share of battery capacity deployed in Large EVs is particularly noteworthy, considering that over half of the EV in this segment sold during November were plug-in hybrids, which typically have smaller battery capacities.  In contrast the Small EV segment was exclusively BEV-driven and 71% of Compact EVs sold in November were fully electric.     

The sales weighted average for small cars is a relatively puny 17.4 kWh and compact EV power pack sizes clock in at a modest 25.6 kWh. The total battery capacity deployed statistic would therefore be expected.

While graphite and lithium loadings in Large EVs broadly correspond to their average battery capacity, applying the cathode chemistry breakdown served up by the Adamas Intelligence Battery Intel Platform provides less readily apparent insights. 

On a GWh basis, a full 84% of the A-Segment is powered by LFP batteries and 77% of EVs in the B-Segment sold in November were fitted with the same type of pack.  

For large EVs that number falls to just 12% which explains why large pickups, minivans, SUVs and cars consume more than twice the nickel of the A and B-Segment combined.

The proportional cobalt and manganese needs of manufacturers of large EVs may also have been higher were it not for the lasting popularity of mid-nickel cathode chemistries in China.   

In the A-Segment EVs fitted with NCM 5-Series batteries made up 12% of the total while in the B-Segment the share came to 18%.

For Large EVs, the NCM 8-Series is the dominant cathode chemistry with the higher energy density of these cathodes providing the necessary oomph to carry loads, people and often a sizeable combustion engine while keeping curb weight as low as possible.

That said LFP batteries will continue to eat into NCM’s market share in the large EV segment on the back of new models like the XPeng P7+ which has become a roaring success in China.  XPeng would be hoping to reproduce those results for the luxury sedan as it expands in Europe and elsewhere.

The US will also see the launch of several new EVs in this category before the end of the decade, notably the revived Scout brand from International Harvester. Volkswagen acquired the storied marque in 2021 and is already taking pre-orders for the 2027 model year pickup.

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