Rivian’s rough patch

Rivian Automotive shook hands on nearly $12 billion worth of deals this month via the establishment of a joint venture with Volkswagen mid-month and its announcement this week of conditional approval for a $6.6 billion loan from the US Department of Energy. 

Rivian will use the money to finish a plant in the US state of Georgia, set to begin operations in 2028. The facility will manufacture the R2 SUV and R3 crossover, the California-based company’s models aimed at the more affordable end of the hugely popular segment. 

Cash-strapped Rivian paused construction of the Georgia plant earlier this year to bring forward the introduction of the much-needed R2 which will now be built at its Illinois facility starting in 2026, two years after it was first teased to the public. 

Volkswagen and Rivian’s joint venture is centered around bringing together the German giant’s manufacturing prowess and Rivian’s software capabilities to develop a new EV platform. Volkswagen can increase its initial cash injection of $1 billion up to $5 billion over time, earning the automaker a substantial stake in Rivian. 

Not riveting  

Rivian has lost momentum this year. Data from the Adamas Intelligence EV Battery Intel Platform shows that in the Americas the company’s share of the market in GWh terms shrank to just under 4% during Q3 this year, down from 7% during the same quarter last year. 

The combined battery capacity of Rivian’s R1S and R1T models that found new owners during the quarter fell an eye-catching 31% to 1.4 GWh, by far the worst performer among top makes in the region.  

Rivian’s downhill trend in the Americas contrasts with healthy growth in the region overall. During the quarter, overall battery power steered onto roads in the Americas, where the US and Canada make up 95% of the market, came in at 37.7 GWh, up 22% year on year.   

A year ago, the R1S was the bestseller in the segments it competes in, thundering over the Ford F150 Lightning, but fast forward to Q3 2024 and Ford’s mighty truck is hauling more fresh power hours onto roads than both Rivian models combined.  

Downrank  

Last year Rivian steered the third most GWh onto roads in the Americas, trailing behind only Ford and Tesla, but Q3 2024 saw the brand drop down to sixth overall, overtaken by Kia, Hyundai and Chevrolet, the latter of which upped battery capacity deployment by 120% year over year, mostly on the back of the new Chevy Blazer.  

Honda is also poised to overtake Rivian towards the end of the year as the Japanese company’s latest full electric entry, the Prologue, is proving to be a huge success, boosting the automaker’s battery deployment nearly 10-fold in Q3.

The Blazer and Prologue share the same General Motors platform that’s proving to be such a success in Rivian’s bread and butter segments.  

Market scout 

The delays in bringing the R2 and R3 to market have opened up opportunities for others too.  

International Harvester’s Scout – credited by some as the first ever SUV long before the term was coined – is being resurrected as a full electric vehicle brand after more than 40 years in the wilderness.

Not only do the new Scout SUV and pick-up have remarkably similar styling to the current and future Rivians, the marque is owned by none other than Volkswagen.  

Production of the Scout Traveler and Terra begins in 2027, which still gives the R2 a launch gap. That is if Rivian can avoid any further delays.    

—

Methodology:  We analyze the battery specifications, battery chemistries, and metal loadings of every unique passenger EV model-version (e.g., 2024 Tesla Model 3 Performance AWD (MIC) – 4th generation) produced and sold globally each month with historical data back to January 2004 (~3,000 model-versions).

With this industry-leading granular insight in hand, we track global monthly production, trade and sales of each model-version for over 180 automakers in over 110 countries to accurately assess the competitive landscapes of cell suppliers and cell chemistries, and to quantify battery capacity and battery materials deployment onto roads, from the bottom up.

Reported battery capacity and materials deployment constitute installed terminal watt-hours and/or tonnes of materials and do not take into account losses during conversion, refining and manufacturing processes. 

Contact the Adamas team to learn more or check out the intelligence services below.