Cobalt use in EV batteries continues to shrink

Commenting on rising prices following the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export restrictions, top global cobalt producer CMOC warned that the new quota system could lead to demand destruction and carries the risk of increased substitution.

When the EV market became the number one source of cobalt demand a few years ago and prices began to rise rapidly, vehicle OEMs and battery manufacturers set out to do just that.

Cobalt thrifting has become an abiding feature of the EV market and the rapid adoption of LFP cathode chemistries coupled with the trend towards high-nickel batteries, have been a drain on demand for years.

Over the first eight months of the year, a total of 38.8 kt of cobalt were deployed onto roads globally in the batteries of all newly sold passenger EVs (BEVs, PHEVs and HEVs) combined, a meagre 4% more than the same period in 2024.  

Cobalt deployment growth for the period came in well below the overall rate for battery capacity deployment, which totaled 648.5 GWh, a 28% expansion, and new EV registrations, which rose by 25% to just under 18 million. 

The positive year-on-year performance was mainly due to an increase in cobalt deployment in PHEVs, up 17% year on year to 9.8 kt. PHEVs now make up a full quarter of total cobalt deployment.

When considering BEVs alone (BEVs are responsible for 71% of total cobalt deployment in newly sold EVs), total installed cobalt tonnes were down 1% to 27.7 kt.

Cobalt deployment in HEVs was also strong, up 16% to 1.3 kt as NCM batteries continue to increase their share of the conventional hybrid market, where nickel metal hydride power packs have long dominated.

However, on a sales weighted basis automakers continue to lighten loadings. Adamas data indicates that the average EV sold globally from January through August of 2025 contained 2.2 kilograms of cobalt, down 17% from the year before. 

The average PHEV’s battery cobalt content (2.1 kg) showed a smaller but still significant 11% decline compared to 2024. Cobalt thrifting per kWh overall is most noticeable in BEVs, with average loadings down 24% to 3.3 kg globally.

Initially, the growing popularity of extended range vehicles has been a boon for battery cobalt as automakers preferred NCM chemistries due to the demands placed on the batteries of these vehicles.  

However, cobalt deployment in EREVs has now also gone in reverse, down 8% year on year to 3.1 kt. Average cobalt loading per EREV was down sharply so far this year – from 6.3 kg to 4.4 kg per vehicle as LFP cathodes begin to eat into this vehicle segment like it has into others hitherto deemed safer from substitution.

A full 64% of the 720,000 EREVs sold so far this year, the vast majority in China, came equipped with LFP packs. The corresponding figure last year was just over 50%. Excluding EREVs, the average PHEV loading drops to 1.7 kg.  

So far the average HEV sold globally contained 0.3 kilograms of cobalt in its battery, up 1% year on year reflecting the gradual increase in Li-ion market share (and decrease in NiMH) for HEVs.

Price revival

A surge in supply from the Congo, responsible for 80% of the world’s cobalt output, coupled with cooling demand from the electric vehicle market, saw cobalt prices sink to historic lows at the start of 2025.

In October, the DRC began implementing a quota system to replace a ban first announced in February. Allowed base volumes of 87,000 tonnes per year is around half the total exports registered in 2024. 

Cobalt sulphate entering the EV battery supply chain in China is now trading over 120% higher than at the start of the year – averaging $7,775 a tonne in September (still nowhere near the 2022 peak of $19,000 per tonne).

Paired with monthly prices shows the size of the battery cobalt market in September totaled an estimated $227.7 million. That’s the highest value since December 2022, and up just shy of 111% year on year and 32% month on month.

So far this year the value of installed cobalt tonnes in EV batteries totals $1.3 billion, up 51% compared to the same period last year. The sales weighted average value of the cobalt contained in EV batteries has hit $73 per vehicle, up from less than $40 at the start of the year. 

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