Adamas Intelligence Announces Updated and Upgraded Rare Earth Price Forecasts to 2030

Demand Resurgence, Supply Uncertainty and U.S. Commitment to Climate Have Fostered a New Price Environment

A lot has happened in the global rare earth market over the past 15 months. In the face of the pandemic, global NdFeB production rose in 2020 and consumption in many end-use applications (including wind power generators and EV traction motors) surged year-over-year.

In the first half of 2020, global NdFeB alloy and powder production slumped, stemming from a pandemic-induced drop in global consumption, but surged to record-high levels in the second half of the year, fueling a drawdown of magnet rare earth oxide and metal inventories in China that propelled prices of neodymium, didymium, dysprosium and terbium to multi-year highs.

 

With a coup underway in Myanmar (the main foreign supplier of heavy rare earth feedstocks into China) through the first quarter of 2021, magnet rare earth oxide and metal prices have levelled off at substantially higher levels than earlier anticipated.

Moreover, with the U.S. recently rejoining the Paris Agreement on climate change and unveiling ambitious plans for electrifying the nation’s vehicle production and fleets, we see scope for a broad continuation of last year’s demand resurgence through 2021, and beyond, with the U.S. joining Europe and China as a major driver of the market’s growth.

Taking the above into account, Adamas Intelligence has published a brief update to accompany last year’s “Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2030” report, including three updated price forecast scenarios to 2030.

 

Three Price Forecast Scenarios

Scenario 1 considers a future in which current sentiment- and speculation-driven prices persist over the near-term with minimal downward impact on prices from supply increases in China, Australia/Malaysia, the U.S. and elsewhere.

Scenario 2 considers a future in which near-term supply increases drag rare earth oxide prices down moderately, albeit prices remain substantially higher than in 2020 resulting from ongoing Myanmar-related uncertainty and speculation.

Scenario 3 considers a future in which near-term supply increases substantially undermine rare earth oxide prices and Myanmar-related uncertainty and speculation are diminished.

For more information about the latest update, please contact us at [email protected]

 

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