Sales weighted contained cobalt in average BEV battery down 14%
The cobalt market received a long-awaited reprieve this week after a four-month export ban instituted by the Democratic Republic of Congo finally started to move prices up which have been hovering at historic lows.
The ban led to the third largest DRC producer, Luxembourg-based Eurasian Resources Group, to declare force majeure on supply contracts, a move which according to one trader is feeding a growing realization that the African nation “means business”. The DRC is responsible for north of 70% of global cobalt output.
On the demand side however, the outlook is less rosy. The EV market became the number one source of cobalt demand a few years ago, but the rapid adoption of LFP cathode chemistries coupled with the trend towards high-nickel batteries, have dented prospects for the metal.
In 2024, a total of 59,566 tonnes of cobalt were deployed onto roads globally in the batteries of all newly sold passenger EVs (BEVs, PHEVs and HEVs) combined, 6% more than in 2023.
That rate of expansion is flattered by a significant increase in cobalt deployment in PHEVs, up 43% year on year. When considering BEVs alone, total installed cobalt tonnes are down 2%.
That’s a growth rate well below that of other battery raw materials – for instance the battery of the average EV sold over the course of last year saw contained lithium jump by 23% year over year, while total nickel and manganese installed tonnes each grew by 10%.
The continued popularity in China of NCM 5-Series batteries which contain roughly 20% cobalt has thrown a lifeline to demand for the metal and the cathode chemistry now constitutes 43% of overall deployment worldwide.
However, on a sales weighted basis automakers continue to lighten loadings. Adamas data indicates that the average EV sold globally over the course of 2024 contained 2.5 kilograms of cobalt, down 13% from the year before.
While the average PHEV’s battery cobalt content (2.2 kg) showed a small decline in 2024 compared to 2023, cobalt thrifting per-kWh overall is most noticeable in BEVs with average loadings down 14% to 4.0 kg globally. In Asia Pacific the corresponding BEV figure is now only 2.8 kg after a 21% year on year decline.
In contrast, last year the average HEV sold globally contained 0.3 kilograms of cobalt in its battery, up 1% year on year reflecting a gradual increase in Li-ion market share (and decrease in NiMH) for HEVs.
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