Passenger EV Battery Chemistries: LFP for the Massive, NCM for the Majority
LFP market share nearly doubled since January 2021
From 17% in January 2021 to 26% in January 2022 to 31% as of September 2022, LFP has been increasingly re-capturing market share from nickel-rich incumbents over the past two years, almost entirely due to its use by industry juggernauts Tesla and BYD.
Through the first nine months of 2022, Tesla and BYD were collectively responsible for a whopping 68% of all LFP deployed onto roads globally in newly sold passenger PHEVs and BEVs versus just 32% from the likes of SGMW, GAC, MG, Geely and others, combined.
On the other side of the fence, the mass majority of automakers and passenger EV models sold globally continue to use nickel-rich cathode chemistries, like NCM 5-, 6-, 7-, 8- and 9-series, which if lumped together have a combined market share more than double that of LFP.
LFP market share to hover between 25% and 35% in passenger EV market until at least one of two things happen
In the near-term, Adamas expects global LFP market share in any given month to hover between 25% and 35% until at least one of two things happen:
- Other Chinese automakers using LFP start exporting vehicles to Europe (and possibly North America) en masse alongside Tesla and BYD, and/or,
- European automakers (like VW and Stellantis) and North American automakers (like Ford and Rivian) that have expressed interest in using LFP for upcoming entry-level models begin doing so.
Until we see the above, we expect LFP market share in 2023 to fall into the 25% to 30% range at the start of each calendar quarter as Tesla deliveries bottom out, and rise up to the 30% to 35% at quarter-end as Tesla deliveries peak.
China remains the epicenter of the global LFP industry
Through the first nine months of this year, over 85% of all LFP deployed onto roads globally in newly-sold passenger EVs was in China. The U.S. captured the next greatest amount, followed by India, the U.K. and Germany.
Moreover, nearly all of the LFP deployed onto roads outside of China year-to-date has been in China-made-and-exported vehicles, or at minimum, China-made-and-exported cells – making China by far and large the epicenter of the global LFP industry.
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