Adamas launches Western CIF price forecasts
Critical for stakeholders seeking non-Chinese supply security With multiple new Western refiners of NdPr and SEG+ products entering the market, interest is growing in reliable price forecasts for these oxides produced in – and delivered to – North America and Europe. As Lynas Rare Earths, MP Materials, Neo Performance Materials, Energy Fuels and others ramp...
Critical for stakeholders seeking non-Chinese supply security
With multiple new Western refiners of NdPr and SEG+ products entering the market, interest is growing in reliable price forecasts for these oxides produced in – and delivered to – North America and Europe.
As Lynas Rare Earths, MP Materials, Neo Performance Materials, Energy Fuels and others ramp up separation capacity, key questions emerge: How will these materials be priced, and how will those prices evolve amid shifting regional and global supply-demand dynamics?
Today, virtually no separated and refined Dy, Tb, Sm, Gd, Y or Lu oxides are produced or traded outside China. With little-to-no transaction data available, traditional price discovery is nearly impossible.
To bridge this gap, we developed detailed production cost models for each of these oxides and analyzed end-users’ willingness to pay. This enables us to forecast – in our view – how Western CIF prices are likely to evolve in response to changing market fundamentals.
Forecasts covering:
- NdPr oxide
- Nd oxide
- Pr oxide
- Sm oxide
- Gd oxide
- Tb oxide
- Dy oxide
- Lu oxide
- Y oxide
Others to be added if/when production emerges.
These forecasts are increasingly critical for magnet makers, automakers and defense contractors seeking non-Chinese supply security.
Western CIF Price Forecasts
Available through the Rare Earth Pricing Outlook subscription service
Methodology
With multiple emerging producers currently ramping up SEG+ oxide production, we developed a granular bottom-up cost model to estimate their production costs for each oxide – including the additional expense of purchasing third-party feedstock to supplement their own supplies.
The model incorporates all major operating and capital cost drivers: solvent extraction reagents and extractant make-up, acids and caustics, energy (electricity and steam), product finishing, utilities, labor, overheads and depreciation.
On the demand side, it evaluates price elasticity for each rare earth oxide, end-users’ willingness to pay across major industries, and the downstream impact on finished materials and products (for example, the effect of Sm oxide prices on Sm metal and SmCo magnet costs).
These cost and demand fundamentals are then integrated with our regional and global supply-demand forecasts. This framework enables us to project evolving trade flows and shifts in pricing power.
For instance, by the early 2030s we forecast that China will become a net importer of Dy and Tb oxides, transferring pricing influence to Western producers and driving convergence of Western CIF and Chinese FOB prices at Western levels.
Contact us today to learn more about our industry-leading Rare Earth Market Intelligence services.
