Humanoid robots and the future of motors and NdFeB markets
The humanoid robot industry has seen remarkable advancements in past three years driven by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and robotics hardware.
These developments are poised to have a profound long-term impact on upstream supply chains, particularly those for NdFeB magnets, which are critical components in motors and actuators for humanoid robots.
Growth upon growth
Wall Street forecasts explosive growth in the humanoid robot market. Goldman Sachs projects a $38 billion market by 2035, while Morgan Stanley estimates potential for $357 billion by 2040, with up to 63 million humanoid robots in the US alone by 2050.
Similarly, as we highlighted in a recent insight, Elon Musk projects the global humanoid robot population will reach 10 billion units by 2040 while Brett Holz, founder of Midjourney, foresees growth to 100 billion by the 2060s, mostly operating in outer space.
These projections and others reflect increasing confidence in the scalability and commercial viability of humanoid robots across sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, consumer applications and, ultimately, space exploration.
Arguably, rare earth magnets – specifically NdFeB magnets used widely in robot motors and actuators – present the greatest hurdle for the robotics industry.
Production of 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040 would consume the equivalent of 186-times current global annual NdFeB magnet production and would necessitate a 93-fold increase in global magnet production capacity by that same year for robots alone.
Adoption of alternative magnet materials, such as FeN, or alternative motor types, such as induction or electrically excited synchronous motors, could help reduce the rare earth supply challenge, albeit not without exacerbating demand for other critical materials, such as copper.
AI for brains, motors for brawn
Breakthroughs in generative AI and so-called large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced the capabilities of humanoid robots. AI-driven innovations, such as end-to-end learning and imitation learning, enable robots to perform complex tasks, rapidly adapt to new environments and interact more naturally with humans.
Companies like NVIDIA, with initiatives like Project GR00T, and Tesla, with its Optimus robot, are leveraging these advancements to create versatile, general-purpose humanoids.
In just a few years, the hardware for humanoid robots, including motors, sensors, and actuators, has reached a level of maturity that now put the industry on the cusp of widespread commercialization.
Manufacturing costs have decreased significantly, with Goldman Sachs noting a 40% reduction in material costs in recent years, bringing the cost per robot unit to a range of $30,000 to $150,000. This cost reduction has been driven by economies of scale, improved manufacturing processes, and declining prices of key components.
Governments and tech giants are increasingly all-in
Forward looking governments and corporations alike are investing heavily in humanoid robots.
China has launched a robot fund to support industry R&D, while companies like Figure and Apptronik have secured substantial funding from tech giants the likes of NVIDIA, Microsoft and Google.
These investments and countless others are accelerating innovation and robot deployment, particularly in Asia, North America, and Europe.
Applications abound
By the end of this decade, humanoid robot applications will expand beyond controlled environments like factories into more dynamic settings, such as healthcare, eldercare, education and disaster response.
Companies like Agility Robotics (with Digit) and Tesla (with Optimus) are developing robots for tasks ranging from warehouse logistics to automotive assembly, highlighting their versatility and growing market potential.
Increased demand for high-performance motors
Humanoid robots require advanced motors, such as frameless torque motors and servo motors, to enable precise movements, dexterity and bipedal locomotion.
As the humanoid robot market scales – potentially reaching millions of units annually by 2035 – demand for these motors will surge. This anticipated growth is already driving innovation in motor technology with a focus on efficiency, compactness and durability to meet the needs of robots operating in diverse environments.
In the years ahead, the robot motor market will benefit from economies of scale but may also face challenges related to supply chain constraints, particularly for high-precision components like gears and bearings. Companies producing these components will need to expand capacity and invest in automation to keep pace with demand.
Critical role of NdFeB magnets
Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are essential for the high-efficiency motors and actuators used in humanoid robots. These rare earth magnets enable the power density and efficiency required for compact, lightweight robotic systems.
As humanoid robot production ramps up, Adamas forecasts that demand for NdFeB magnets will grow significantly, reinforcing their strategic importance in the upstream supply chain. Companies in the US, Europe, Asia and elsewhere involved in NdFeB production are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.
The growth of humanoid robotics presents significant opportunities for upstream suppliers of motors and magnets. Companies that can innovate quickly, secure reliable supply chains and address sustainability concerns will gain a competitive edge.
However, established players in the motor and NdFeB sectors will need to differentiate themselves through quality, scalability and cost-effectiveness to secure market share.
Collaboration across the value chain
To avoid potential supply chain bottlenecks and ensure long-term stability, collaboration between humanoid robot manufacturers, motor suppliers (if not in-house) and NdFeB producers will be critical.
Joint ventures, strategic partnerships and R&D investments can help align production capacities with demand and mitigate risks associated with rare earth dependency.
While the humanoid robot industry’s growth will drive demand for motors and NdFeB magnets, upstream value chains should prepare for potential disruptions, such as supply shortages or price spikes. Building resilient supply chains, diversifying supply sources and investing in sustainable practices like recycling will be essential for long-term success.
Robotics are the new frontier of long-term NdFeB demand
All things considered, the rapid development of the humanoid robot industry is set to transform the upstream mine-to-magnet-to-motor value chain over the long term, creating both opportunities and challenges. The surge in demand for high-performance motors and NdFeB magnets will drive growth and innovation, but it will also expose vulnerabilities in supply chains and sustainability practices if not proactively addressed.
Companies that can navigate these dynamics strategically – through innovation, collaboration and resilience – will be well-positioned to thrive in this transformative era of robotics.
More on this topic at Rare Earth Mines, Magnets & Motors 2025
Join us in Toronto in September 2025 for Rare Earth Mines, Magnets & Motors 2025 where we’ll explore this topic further with leading industry experts.
The two-day event will bring together business and technical leaders from across the global mine-to-OEM supply chain for high caliber discussions and networking at a 5-star venue.
Key themes of this year’s conference will include robotics, automation, advanced air mobility, and the emerging mine-to-magnet supply chain coming together upstream.
Special guest: Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple
More information: www.adamasevent.com
