Why CATL’s Na-ion Battery is Not a Major Threat to the Lithium Industry
Implications of CATL’s New Battery Type
Earlier this month Adamas Intelligence spoke with Reuters about the implications of CATL’s newly-unveiled sodium-ion (“Na-ion”) battery for the lithium industry.
Our take: Not a major threat.
Too little too late for a major dent in the passenger EV space
While the 160 Wh/kg cell energy density cited is interestingly close to current generation LFP, CATL doesn’t plan to start commercial production until 2023 (meaning no major scale until 2025/26), during which time incumbent chemistries are poised see advances that will make Na-ion less attractive for the wider passenger EV market.
For example, Gotion plans to release a new LFP cell in 2022 with energy density of 260 Wh/kg, comparable to that of Panasonic’s current generation of NCA cells. Similarly, CATL’s latest generation of NCM 8-Series pouch cells are pushing 300 Wh/kg with potential to lift that closer to 350 Wh/kg with increased silicon doping of the anode.
Going forward, CATL sees potential to boost its Na-ion cell density to 200 Wh/kg, keeping on heels of advances in LFP. However, Adamas expects LFP to represent at most just 30% of the global passenger EV market by 2035 (by GWh installed) leaving Na-ion competing for a relatively small share of the passenger EV market – one dominated by low-cost, low-range urban EVs and buses.
Sodium-ion is well-suited for low-cost urban EVs as well as light commercial vehicles and passenger buses
As a low-cost, rapid-charging, long-lasting and safe alternative to comparable Li-ion cells, Na-ion cells are well-suited for use in small, low-priced, low-range urban EVs like the Wuling Hongguang Mini, Renault Zoe, or Tesla Model 3 SR, among others. This segment of the passenger EV market has relatively small battery packs, on average, making it a relatively small piece of the battery market by watt-hours installed, despite strong EV sales growth.
Furthermore, with an ability to charge to 80% state of charge (“SOC”) in just 15 minutes, CATL’s Na-ion cells are also very well-suited for use is passenger EV buses, which currently use LFP cells almost exclusively, as well as light commercial EVs. Both vehicle types frequently return to a central location throughout the day – be it a bus station or parcel distribution center – where charging can take place while loading up.
Lastly, in a future with likely lithium supply constraints, Na-ion can help make available more lithium for solid state cells
With solid state cells and platforms continuing to advance towards commercialization, the adoption of Na-ion at the lower end of the passenger EV market (i.e., low-cost urban EVs) can help free up more lithium supplies for solid state cells using lithium anodes.
For example, Solid Power has developed a cell technology platform that pairs a solid electrolyte with a conventional Li-ion cathode and lithium metal anode, necessitating (we expect) more lithium per kWh than a conventional Li-ion cell.
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