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July 31, 2026
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3 minute read
What the rare earth cost curve can tell us about the future of Western prices
Outside China, warehouse and delivered prices for key rare earth oxides have been reported at large multiples of Chinese levels in recent periods.
Some investors and project developers treat those numbers as the prices Western projects can bank on.
The industry cost curve suggests otherwise – and the difference matters for the economics of every new mine and separation plant.
When prices sit far above the marginal cost of existing and emerging Western production, two things happen.
First, every project on the curve looks highly profitable (see below).
